Introduction to the 2026 NFL Draft Order

The 2026 NFL Draft order was finalized after the conclusion of Week 18 on January 5, 2026, marking a pivotal moment for non-playoff teams looking to rebuild. With the Las Vegas Raiders securing the No. 1 pick through strength-of-schedule tiebreakers, this draft class is poised to feature high-impact players at quarterback, running back, and defensive positions. The order reflects a season of surprises, with perennial contenders like the Kansas City Chiefs falling into the top 10 due to injuries and underperformance. This analysis breaks down the key aspects, including how the order was determined, team implications, and potential fits for top prospects.

How the Draft Order Was Determined

The NFL draft order for non-playoff teams (picks 1-18) is based primarily on regular-season records, with the worst teams picking first. Ties are broken using strength of schedule (SOS)—the combined winning percentage of opponents—as the primary tiebreaker, followed by divisional and conference records if needed.

• Tiebreaker Drama: Three teams finished at 3-14 (Raiders, Jets, Cardinals), but the Raiders’ weaker SOS (.480) edged them to No. 1 over the Jets (.495) and Cardinals (.500). Similarly, the Giants’ upset win over the Cowboys dropped them from a potential top-2 spot to No. 5.
• Week 18 Impact: Wins by teams like the Giants (over Cowboys) and Browns (over Bengals) improved their records but hurt their draft position, exemplifying the “win-now vs. tank” debate. The Chiefs’ 6-11 finish, exacerbated by Patrick Mahomes’ injury, locked them at No. 10.
• Picks 19-32: These will be assigned based on playoff results—earliest exits get higher picks, with the Super Bowl winner at No. 32.

This system ensures parity, giving struggling franchises premium talent to accelerate rebuilds.

Breakdown of the Top 10 Picks

The top 10 features a mix of rebuilding squads and surprising fallers, each with specific needs:

1. Las Vegas Raiders (3-14): Desperate for a franchise QB after a tumultuous season under Pete Carroll. Likely eyeing Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza or UCLA’s Dante Moore.
2. New York Jets (4-13): Another QB-needy team; could target a signal-caller or trade down for offensive line help amid Aaron Rodgers’ retirement rumors.
3. Arizona Cardinals: Focus on bolstering the defense or adding weapons for Kyler Murray; a top edge rusher like Tennessee’s James Pearce Jr. fits.
4. Tennessee Titans: Building around Will Levis; expect a WR like Colorado’s Travis Hunter to pair with DeAndre Hopkins.
5. New York Giants (4-13): Their Week 18 win cost a higher pick—now eyeing RB Ashton Jeanty from Boise State for a ground-game reset.
6. Cleveland Browns (5-12): Rookie QB Shedeur Sanders showed promise; could add protection or a WR like Tetairoa McMillan.
7. Washington Commanders (5-12): Post-Dan Snyder era needs stability; a versatile defender like Michigan’s Will Johnson at CB.
8. Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow’s protection woes; top OT like LSU’s Will Campbell.
9. New Orleans Saints: Aging roster needs youth; perhaps a TE or LB.
10. Kansas City Chiefs: Shocking slide due to Mahomes’ ACL; could reload with a WR or edge to chase another ring.

These picks highlight a draft heavy on offensive talent, with QBs potentially sliding if teams prioritize trenches.

Implications for Teams and Rebuild Strategies

• Rebuilding Franchises (Picks 1-7): Teams like the Raiders and Jets have golden opportunities to land generational talents, potentially accelerating turnarounds. The Giants and Commanders, however, face criticism for “meaningless” wins that lowered their slots—costing access to elite QBs.
• Mid-Round Surprises (Picks 8-18): The Chiefs at No. 10 is a boon for a contender; they can add immediate contributors without trading up. Bengals and Saints, typically playoff hopefuls, must address aging cores.
• Draft Capital and Trades: Expect movement—teams like the Titans (multiple picks from prior trades) could wheel and deal. Non-playoff squads hold leverage in a prospect-rich class.
• Overall League Parity: This order underscores the NFL’s design for balance; bottom-feeders get first dibs, while playoff exits (picks 19+) reward deep runs.

Potential Top Prospects and Fits

This draft class, while QB-thin at the very top, boasts depth in skill positions and defense:

• QB Fernando Mendoza (Indiana): Heisman winner; ideal for Raiders or Jets needing arm talent and mobility.
• RB Ashton Jeanty (Boise State): Record-breaking rusher; Giants could pair him with Devin Singletary for a dynamic backfield.
• WR Travis Hunter (Colorado): Two-way star; Titans or Browns for offensive firepower.
• EDGE James Pearce Jr. (Tennessee): Sack machine; Cardinals to terrorize NFC West QBs.
• OT Will Campbell (LSU): Bengals’ dream to protect Burrow.

Mock drafts suggest a run on offense early, with defensive steals in Rounds 2-3.

Final Thoughts and What to Watch

The 2026 Draft in Pittsburgh promises excitement, with the Raiders’ choice setting the tone. Teams must balance best-player-available with needs, especially in a class favoring rebuilds. Keep an eye on pre-draft workouts and the Combine (February 2026) for risers/fallers. For fans, this is the offseason’s Super Bowl—hope springs eternal!